Expedition 33 May Be Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place at the TGAs

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 has broken new ground at The Game Awards, picking up the most nominations of any title in history at 12 total. That may not seem like much, given The Last of Us 2 had 11 nominations in 2020, but the specific spread and gaming landscape this is emerging in is very different. Truth is, win or lose, Expedition 33 is caught between several possible realities—not all that different from the war between Painters and Writers.
Setting all that aside paints a really pretty picture of Expedition 33's future. Its high quality has resonated with its success, all fans are tuned in for whatever the studio produces next, and Expedition 33 will expand with new content in the coming months or weeks. But big success often comes with a lot of nay-sayers (I am aware of the forthcoming irony), and that's the future that I am afraid Expedition 33 will encounter first.
Expedition 33 launched in April, and despite worries over the Oblivion Remastered shadow drop overshadowing it, it would go on to critical and commercial success. Saying it's a big hit with fans is also an understatement, but the nature of the gaming industry is that everything is a big hit...with the right people. The Last of Us 2's nominations at TGAs and beyond were contentious as well, largely due to many fans disliking the direction of the game, but that didn't stop the amount of hate it received around TGAs.
Expedition 33, in and of itself, is less contentious, but its nominations won't be. Expedition 33 picked up 12 total nominations, including Game of the Year, Best Game Direction, Best Narrative, Best Art Direction, Best Score and Music, Best Audio Design, Best Performance for Charlie Cox as Gustave, Best Performance for Ben Starr as Verso, Best Performance for Jennifer English as Maelle, Best Independent Game, Best Debut Indie Game, and Best RPG. The chances of Expedition 33 sweeping up all of these categories are quite high.
The response to it winning many, if not most, of these categories is the rock. The fact that it did not choose these categories is, in and of itself, the hard place. It's no doubt an honor to pick up all these nominations, but plenty of people are going to be up in arms about the wins. I can already smell the backlash, and it's not even December yet. But let's break it down as to what very well could happen.
A lot of people would not bet against Expedition 33 winning GOTY, and that's a fact according to various betting markets. Kalshi has it at a 91% chance of winning, as of this writing. But what happens when it wins this category and beats out its competitors? Kingdom Come 2, as just an example, has been nominated for GOTY, Best RPG, and Best Narrative, which Expedition 33 was also nominated for. Similar situations are possible for pretty much every GOTY nominee, including Hades 2, Hollow Knight: Silksong, Death Stranding 2, and Donkey Kong Bananza.
Given how hard Kingdom Come 2 fans have fought for it to receive these awards, it would not be surprising if Expedition 33 swept all categories and many fans were upset—and reasonably so. Fans of other games are already upset, and the showcase hasn't taken place yet. Streamer Shroud has made his feelings clear, saying that ARC Raiders should win GOTY over Expedition 33 ahead of the nominees reveal, and it sparked discourse and controversy. Now, what happens when the real winner is decided, and there's no more speculation?
A lot of fans understand the story of Expedition 33's development to be 32 scrappy developers (and a dog) fighting against all odds to bring their vision to life. Not taking away from the truth of their uphill battle, the fact remains that it is not a clear-cut independent or indie game, as neither definition is exactly clear-cut. Expedition 33 utilized a lot of outside contractors, it has a publisher and considerable outside funding, and the definitions of what is indie, independent, AA, AAA, AAAA, AAAAA, and dreadful yelling seem to move goalposts every couple of months. Then, while the studio is new, is it realllyyyy a debut title for these devs? If anything, on that alone, these could be its weakest categories, and that's largely because of how easily scrutinized one way or another they are. There's a strong argument for every game nominated after all, with Blue Prince and Dispatch also deserve their own awards and having their diehard fans.
If anything, this feels like the category Expedition 33 could understandably lose, and while that could stir up other nonsense as well, its winning could do so even more, given that the definitions have become so fluid.
I've made my opinions on Charlie Cox as Gustave in Expedition 33 known before, with even Cox giving the credit to the mocap actor, but there's no taking away that all three actors (Cox, Starr, and English) deserve a spotlight in those roles. For perhaps the first time in TGA history, the performance category is essentially 50% Expedition 33 and 50% three other games. They all deserve the recognition, but several excellent performances (like Alex Jordan who played every major character in The Alters) go ignored. Maybe I'm tripping and this is the least contentious category, but it certainly makes the case that a single category for performance makes no sense.
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of actors in our industry constantly busting their asses to deliver quality game experiences. All too often, good acting is glossed over while bad acting is absolutely targeted and brings the game down. And out of those who continually put in the thankless work, six get nominations at The Game Awards. Divide it up. It's that simple. Main characters, supporting characters, antagonists, X type of role, Y type of role, etc. There is plenty of room to do that and shine a light on these people, given the very public-facing roles they play in gaming, but I suppose that would require more stage time for them, wouldn't it?
"But Joshua, how is this not just doomerism on your part?" It might be. I would like to be wrong. I would like The Game Awards to unfold however it unfolds, everyone in this industry to be celebrated instead of a select few, and no one to be upset about the outcomes. That's not possible, but the pendulum swings too far the other way. And yeah, I have my own preferences. I think English deserves the best performance award. I wish Blue Prince, Dispatch, and The Alters got more acknowledgment (and I don't even like Blue Prince that much, I'm sorry!), and Death Stranding 2 is my personal GOTY. But, win or lose, I won't be up in arms. I'll be happy to see the industry be celebrated, even if I think the industry could be celebrated better, and I would invite everyone who is upset by certain wins to just nod along with me.
But, while I am here, how could it be celebrated better? I can point out a few possible steps (and also acknowledge that they would have drawbacks, as there is likely no way to perfectly celebrate the industry):
As I said before, maybe I am wrong. Maybe there won't be discourse around Expedition 33, but if there is, the answer can't be to "nerf" the game. In multiplayer games (like ARC Raiders), players always love it when other guns are "buffed" instead of the dominating one being "nerfed," and what TGA needs moving forward is a buff. In the meantime, games and people remain in the hot seat and too oftentimes feel nerfed in comparison.